where P(·) is the probability that bank i at time t experiences a default event given the
set of observable covariates xit−1, with being fixed parameters to be estimated. In order
to assure the exogeneity of the regressors xi and to introduce a forward-looking dimension
into the model, the explanatory variables are all lagged one period relative to the response
variable yi. The function G(·) is a link function mapping the linear index xit−1 to the
response probability with support in the open unit interval. For the majority of the
empirical analysis, we will use the logit model as a special case of the link function G(·).
Hence, we will estimate models of the form: